IG Group lowers its 2026 revenue outlook after a weaker third quarter

London-listed IG Group said on 2 October 2026 that revenue for the three months to 30 September would be well below the prior-year quarter, and that it now expects slower growth for 2026 as a whole, according to an Alliance News report published by AJ Bell.

The details

• The company expects group revenue of about £240m for the quarter, down 14% from £280.1m a year earlier. Net trading revenue is put at roughly £210m, compared with £249.5m.
• The main cause, the company said, was lower revenue retention in its over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives business. Retention was about 70% in the quarter, versus an average of around 80% since it introduced market-making optimisation measures in the second half of 2025.
• IG now expects 2026 total revenue growth in the mid-single-digit percentage range. According to Liquidity Finder, the previous guidance was 10% to 15%.
• Client activity did not weaken: OTC customer income rose about 8%, and Liquidity Finder reports organic first trades up by more than 25%.
• First-half total revenue was £642.8m, up 18%. The company also flagged about £30m of one-off costs for 2026 linked to its Jersey redomicile and a July restructuring.
• Net revenue at US business Underdog, acquired in a deal announced in July, roughly doubled to about $105m in the quarter. IG plans to publish more third-quarter detail on 22 October.
• Shares fell around 25% in Friday morning trading, according to the report.

What it means for clients

Retention measures how much of the income generated by client trading a market-making broker keeps after hedging and other costs. When it falls, revenue can drop even while clients are trading more. IG said the optimisation measures are meant to raise retention over time but may make results more variable from quarter to quarter.

For clients, a results warning is mainly a signal about the firm's earnings, not about the safety of client money, which the update did not address. Readers comparing providers may still want to check how a broker holds client assets and which regulator oversees it. This article is general information and not advice.